With Germany’s parliamentary elections unlikely ?

[sharminsumu]

Its rise in the polls largely cannibalizes the vote of Marine Le Pen, the fascist candidate who is the presumed challenger of President Emmanuel Macron. There doesn’t seem to be much downside to Mr Macron over the sudden rise of a candidate with slim credentials for the job. In the French two-stage system, a direct fight against a foreigner with extreme views almost guarantees that Mr Macron will win in the second round.

A woman holds up a sign reading “Liberty, I write your name” during a demonstration against new coronavirus security measures demanded by the French government in Nantes, western France.

Mr. Zemmour’s views on French social and constitutional cohesion allow Mr. Macron to manage his own political priorities. The president’s criticism on the left is undermined when it is palpable that Mr. Macron should not cede this political ground to the most extreme parties.

to produce a post-Angela Merkel government until next year, Mr Macron can use the freedom of a divided and contentious opposition to focus on his international priorities. The French leader would like to be able to tell job function email database voters that he is unquestionably at the head of Europe. But a tight presidential campaign that started earlier would hamper his efforts to position himself at the top of European politics.

Mr. Macron is already in campaign mode. It has, for example, dramatically increased government spending on large-scale projects. A trip to Marseille allowed him to make his mark on an offensive against gang warfare and the rise of extremism in French cities. This is another key area where Mr Macron is poised to stir up controversy to show the state is active and on the side of voters who fear social change.

The danger for Ms. Le Pen is obvious. She struggled to convince the electorate that she is the true heir to the uncompromising legacy built by her father, Jean Marie Le Pen. If 30 percent of the electorate is up for grabs, then a battle for 15 percent each with Mr. Zemmour ends in a net positive for centrist and establishment candidates like Mr. Macron.