Can the “Oil Cow” continue?
Russian maritime export sanctions , OPEC+ production cuts and cold weather have all provided impetus for the surge in oil prices.
On the one hand, a cold snap in the U. and Europe could disrupt supply if refineries are affected, and heating oil demand would naturally rise.
Now, Western sanctions on Russian oil have added fuel to the fire, which has undoubtedly exacerbated concerns about global supply.
Goldman Sachs said extreme cold weather in the United States indonesia telegram data has caused inventory levels in Cushing, Oklahoma to fall to their lowest level since 2014.
Oil prices also rose as commodity traders worried about U. policies under President-elect Donald Trump.
Global oil supply is expected to tighten at an accelerating pace , including potential sanctions on Iran and global trade conflicts that could disrupt energy flows .
JPMorgan analysts expect global oil demand to increase significantly by 1.6 million barrels per day year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, mainly driven by demand for heating oil, kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo also pointed out that the sanctions will reduce Russia's oil exports and increase its costs.
He said the timing of the sanctions, coming just days before Trump's inauguration , meant Trump was likely to maintain them and use them as a negotiating tool for a peace treaty in Ukraine.