How many pupils leave schools between
Posted: Sun Jan 26, 2025 8:14 am
I was reminded a while back of one of our very first publications, Floors, Tables and Coasters, in which we examined the impact of pupil mobility on secondary schools’ published performance indicators.
Indicators published in Secondary School Performance Tables are, with a few additions and exceptions, based on pupils recorded on roll in Year 11 in the Spring term (January) School Census. Anyone america rcs data who leaves before this date, voluntarily or otherwise, is not included. This risks introducing a perverse incentive to “lose” pupils from the roll either by exclusion, managed move or encouragement to leave[1].
We first examined this question using data relating to the 2013/14 Key Stage 4 cohort. Sure enough, we saw a decline in the size of the cohort between Year 7 and Year 11, particularly between the Spring of Year 10 and the Spring of Year 11.
We thought it was time we dusted down the analysis to see if things have changed.
Data
As usual, we use data from the National Pupil Database.
We track six cohorts of young people, those who reached the end of Key Stage 4 between 2017/18 and 2022/23. This includes the two years when national examinations were cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019/20 and 2020/21. We track them from the Spring of Year 7 (i.e. from 2013/14 to 2018/19).
Indicators published in Secondary School Performance Tables are, with a few additions and exceptions, based on pupils recorded on roll in Year 11 in the Spring term (January) School Census. Anyone america rcs data who leaves before this date, voluntarily or otherwise, is not included. This risks introducing a perverse incentive to “lose” pupils from the roll either by exclusion, managed move or encouragement to leave[1].
We first examined this question using data relating to the 2013/14 Key Stage 4 cohort. Sure enough, we saw a decline in the size of the cohort between Year 7 and Year 11, particularly between the Spring of Year 10 and the Spring of Year 11.
We thought it was time we dusted down the analysis to see if things have changed.
Data
As usual, we use data from the National Pupil Database.
We track six cohorts of young people, those who reached the end of Key Stage 4 between 2017/18 and 2022/23. This includes the two years when national examinations were cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019/20 and 2020/21. We track them from the Spring of Year 7 (i.e. from 2013/14 to 2018/19).